![]() Enhanced technical cooperation, to potentially include ongoing Chinese purchases of Russian arms and an expansion of joint development projects on platforms that incorporate key Russian technologies (e.g., submarines).Waidlich goes on to sketch out what he believes a more cooperative relationship would look like: China clearly faces increased threats from the U.S. China may find it beneficial to visibly strengthen its military ties with Russia if it believes the chances of an Indo-Pacific conflict are growing and that military cooperation with Russia could enhance its deterrence messaging against the U.S. Such a future would see the United States and its allies increasingly united in their rhetoric and actions aimed at pressuring China over its declared interests in areas such as Taiwan, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and disputed islands in the South China Sea. Unlike the two scenarios above, a future of strengthened China-Russia military cooperation may have less to do with the way the Ukraine conflict plays out and more to do with China’s perception of threats in the Indo-Pacific. It is his third scenario that caught my eye:įuture 3: Cooperation Is Markedly Strengthened Two of those scenarios conclude that China will stick with the status quo or that Russian and Chinese ties could weaken. I want to direct you to a piece in The Diplomat from March of 2022, 3 Possible Futures for China-Russia Military Cooperation, After the Ukraine war, will China maintain, expand, or scale back its military cooperation with Russia? by Brian Waidelich. Would China entertain entering such an alliance? I think it is a distinct possibility. Vice President Kamala Harris also alluded to China’s support for Russia during her speech in Munich. ![]() “The Secretary was quite blunt in warning about the implications and consequences of China providing material support to Russia or assisting Russia with systematic sanctions evasion,” a senior State Department official told reporters. Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the issue when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Saturday on the sidelines of the conference, officials said. The officials would not describe in detail what intelligence the US has seen suggesting a recent shift in China’s posture, but said US officials have been concerned enough that they have shared the intelligence with allies and partners at the Munich Security Conference over the last several days. The US has recently begun seeing “disturbing” trendlines in China’s support for Russia’s military and there are signs that Beijing wants to “creep up to the line” of providing lethal military aid to Russia without getting caught, US officials familiar with the intelligence told CNN. Why do I say this? I am reading the tea leaves of leaks from the Biden team. The courting period may be ending and the dawn of a Russian/Chinese military alliance may be at hand. ![]() Up to now Russia and China have participated in joint-exercises but, like a couple in the early stages of dating, they have not decided to tie the knot and get hitched. One subject where Biden is likely to break new ground is Russia’s future military alliance with China. His much anticipated speech to both houses of the Russian parliament and to the military leadership will stand in stark contrast to the mumblings of Joe Biden. The following furry fellow displays more charm and warmth than sleepy Joe. I wonder if the bookies in Vegas or London are offering odds on how many times he shouts and how many times he whispers in one speech? Got to admit it. ![]() ![]() Compared to Churchill, Biden’s oratory skills remind one of a chattering, grinning baboon. I am confident he will display the same muddled thoughts and tangled syntax if he gets to a podium. Joe Biden made a semi-coherent speech in Kiev and may do an encore on Tuesday in Poland. ![]()
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